Should we Americanize European Football
Written by Diarmuid Gillingham
Inspired by DW Kick-Off and my friend, who supports Barcelona.
Part One: Why The American Question Needs To Be Asked
Part Two: How The MLS Approach Would Impact The European Game of Football
Introduction and Context
This will be the first of many blog posts comparing the European football scene with that of the USA. While Europen societies are better known for their equality than the USA, the American way of doing sports is often more equal than their European counterparts. This fascinating cultural fact extends to the world's most popular game, which is football or soccer. In this first piece, I make a comparison between the European game and the MLS. This piece will mainly focus on why the European game is so one-sided towards the big clubs.
On the 16th of August 2019, I watched Barcelona struggle in a 1-0 opening day defeat to Ath. Bilbao. What caught my attention more than anything was my friend's constant complaining about the Basque side's negative tactics. But can we realistically expect Bilbao to throw a punch for punch with Barcelona when their squad has a total value of £199.62 compared to the Catalan's £1.06 billion? (1) In a word no. Every fan enjoys when David beats Goliath, but this is happening less and less in the European game as the top team's dominance of their domestic leagues and the Champions League is becoming more evident by the year.
A Less Competitive Europe
Across Europe, fans have become bored as they know who will win the domestic league as soon as the first ball is kicked. Celtic have won the Scottish league in the last eight consecutive years including two domestic trebles in the previous two years. Juventus have won Serie A the last eight years. PSQ have won Ligue 1 in six of the last seven years. Barcelona has won La Liga four of the last five years despite giants of the game such as Real Madrid and Athletico Madrid playing in La Liga also. Bayern Munich has won the German Bundesliga for the last seven years. Red Bull Salzburg have won the Austrian Bundesliga seven of the previous eight years. Benfica has won the Premeira Liga in five of the last six years in Portugal. Dundalk has won the league of Ireland four of the previous five seasons. There are some exceptions. In Russia, the previous four years has brought four different champions all be it, three of them are based in the capital city of Moscow. In the Netherlands, the last three years have seen Ajax, PSV, and Feyenoord all crowned Champions. The last three years have also brought three different winners in Belgium.
MLS: The Blueprint?
In the United States, three different teams have topped the Eastern Conference in the last five years. In the Western Conference, four different franchises have topped the table in the same period. While the MLS Cup is a knockout competition, it is heavily impacted by league position with a Play-Offs system. The last seven years have brought six different champions. The only club to win it twice are LA Galaxy in 2012 and 2014. This is more different winners than both the Champions League and the Europa League during the same period. (Fig 1-3)
Is the Champions League competitive?
Many readers may be surprised to hear that since the 2012/2013 season, 22 different teams have taken part in the Champions League quarter-finals. This includes ten sides who have achieved this once in that time frame such as Wolfsburg, Roma, Ajax and Chelsea., Four sides have done it twice it the last seven years, including, Manchester United, Liverpool, Monaco, and Porto. This means that the eight teams left have all been in the quarter-finals at least three times. Barcelona is the only side to reach the Champions League quarter-finals every year for the last seven years. It is when we look at how often individual clubs have reached the last eight it is when we start to see some apparent trends. It will come to nobody's surprise that the four clubs to feature the most are Barcelona (7) Real Madrid (6), Bayern Munich (6) and Juventus (5) (Fig 4)
Who are the Winners?
When we look at (Fig 5), there is a trend of dominance between a few teams when we break it down country by country. Realistically if any player wants to reach the quarter-finals of Europe's primary knockout contest, they will have to be at one of a very few select groups of clubs. The idea of a Super League which would be a league competition amongst Europe's super clubs has been met much criticism, but when we look at the facts, we are not too far away as it is. Premier League fans will quickly point of the competitiveness of their league and boast that it is the exception. So let's have a look at just that claim.
Premier League
In figure 6 below, I look at the Premier League in five-year intervals 2002/2003, 2007/2008, 2012/2013, and then every season from 2015/2016 to 2018/2019 to see specific changes over time. I compared how many points the champions got in each year and how far they finished ahead of 2nd, 4th, 10th and 20th place. I also checked if the number of points the top four and bottom four sides got, to see if they have diverged or converged. A divergence would suggest the league is becoming more unequal and therefore less exciting and competitive.
Leicester's Miracle Season
The 2015/2016 season will be remembered as the season in which Leicester became the biggest outsiders to win the Premier League with some bookies giving odds as high as 5000-1. But it was one of the most competitive years in Premier League history. During the season the top four only got 288 points between them. The next two seasons, they got 333 points. A 45 collective points jump. But in the 2015/2016 season, the bottom four clubs got 127 points. Just one less than the season before. But it is 15 points more than last season where the bottom four clubs only achieved 112 points, which is the lowest of this study. One statistic that may explain why the top four got so few points was the rise of the midtable clubs. In that season there was only a 31 point gap between champions Leicester and Chelsea in 10th. This is the lowest amount in the studied years. For context, the difference between first and 10th during the 2018/2019 season was 46, and the year before that it was 56 points.
Premier League Trends
In general, the Premier League is becoming less competitive with each given year. The number of points achieved by the champions is on the rise. We see a growing disparity between Manchester City and Liverpool with the other top 6 clubs and the rest of the league. Last season saw a gap of 27 points between 1st and 4th. The biggest total in the studied period. Except for last year, the bottom of the table is getting stronger, but the middle of the league grows weaker. The difference last year is due to the dismal form of Huddersfield Town with 16 points and Fulham with 26. The season before, 20th place West Brom got 31. This also meant there was an 82 point gap between Manchester City and Huddersfield Town. In other words, 27 wins and a draw.
Conclusions:
- There is an unfair disparity between the top clubs and the clubs they compete against.
- Players have little chance of winning the Champions League or a domestic title in Europe's top 5 leagues unless they are at a very select group of clubs.
-Smaller clubs are unlikely to play expansive football against big sides and be successful even 50% of the time. This will result in the continuation of "anti-football" tactics.
- There seems to be a strong correlation between Champions League participation and domestic domination.
- Leagues without deep-seated Champions League participation like Russia, Portugal and the Netherlands tend to be more competitive than the top five leagues.
-Europe already has a super league filled with dominant super clubs.
-The MLS has a much more extensive range of winners and shows no signs of changing.
- It is likely that the same 8-10 clubs will continue to be in the Champions League quarter-finals for years to come.
- The Premier League is following the pattern of other European leagues, with the top of the division being dominated by 1-2 clubs.
-The bottom of the Premier League is getting stronger which suggest there is a growing strength amongst championship clubs and a weakening of mid-table sides.
What's Next
In the next piece, I will look the MLS in detail and compare it with the European game.
Graphs:
Fig1
Fig 2
Fig 3
Fig 4
Fig 5
Fig 6
References:
1. Transfermarkt https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/primera-division/startseite/wettbewerb/ES1
Bibliography:
1. DW Kick-Off: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2cAN2guPTE&t=668s
2. CIES Football Observatory https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/mr/mr42/en/
Inspired by DW Kick-Off and my friend, who supports Barcelona.
Part One: Why The American Question Needs To Be Asked
Part Two: How The MLS Approach Would Impact The European Game of Football
Introduction and Context
This will be the first of many blog posts comparing the European football scene with that of the USA. While Europen societies are better known for their equality than the USA, the American way of doing sports is often more equal than their European counterparts. This fascinating cultural fact extends to the world's most popular game, which is football or soccer. In this first piece, I make a comparison between the European game and the MLS. This piece will mainly focus on why the European game is so one-sided towards the big clubs.
On the 16th of August 2019, I watched Barcelona struggle in a 1-0 opening day defeat to Ath. Bilbao. What caught my attention more than anything was my friend's constant complaining about the Basque side's negative tactics. But can we realistically expect Bilbao to throw a punch for punch with Barcelona when their squad has a total value of £199.62 compared to the Catalan's £1.06 billion? (1) In a word no. Every fan enjoys when David beats Goliath, but this is happening less and less in the European game as the top team's dominance of their domestic leagues and the Champions League is becoming more evident by the year.
A Less Competitive Europe
Across Europe, fans have become bored as they know who will win the domestic league as soon as the first ball is kicked. Celtic have won the Scottish league in the last eight consecutive years including two domestic trebles in the previous two years. Juventus have won Serie A the last eight years. PSQ have won Ligue 1 in six of the last seven years. Barcelona has won La Liga four of the last five years despite giants of the game such as Real Madrid and Athletico Madrid playing in La Liga also. Bayern Munich has won the German Bundesliga for the last seven years. Red Bull Salzburg have won the Austrian Bundesliga seven of the previous eight years. Benfica has won the Premeira Liga in five of the last six years in Portugal. Dundalk has won the league of Ireland four of the previous five seasons. There are some exceptions. In Russia, the previous four years has brought four different champions all be it, three of them are based in the capital city of Moscow. In the Netherlands, the last three years have seen Ajax, PSV, and Feyenoord all crowned Champions. The last three years have also brought three different winners in Belgium.
MLS: The Blueprint?
In the United States, three different teams have topped the Eastern Conference in the last five years. In the Western Conference, four different franchises have topped the table in the same period. While the MLS Cup is a knockout competition, it is heavily impacted by league position with a Play-Offs system. The last seven years have brought six different champions. The only club to win it twice are LA Galaxy in 2012 and 2014. This is more different winners than both the Champions League and the Europa League during the same period. (Fig 1-3)
Is the Champions League competitive?
Many readers may be surprised to hear that since the 2012/2013 season, 22 different teams have taken part in the Champions League quarter-finals. This includes ten sides who have achieved this once in that time frame such as Wolfsburg, Roma, Ajax and Chelsea., Four sides have done it twice it the last seven years, including, Manchester United, Liverpool, Monaco, and Porto. This means that the eight teams left have all been in the quarter-finals at least three times. Barcelona is the only side to reach the Champions League quarter-finals every year for the last seven years. It is when we look at how often individual clubs have reached the last eight it is when we start to see some apparent trends. It will come to nobody's surprise that the four clubs to feature the most are Barcelona (7) Real Madrid (6), Bayern Munich (6) and Juventus (5) (Fig 4)
Who are the Winners?
When we look at (Fig 5), there is a trend of dominance between a few teams when we break it down country by country. Realistically if any player wants to reach the quarter-finals of Europe's primary knockout contest, they will have to be at one of a very few select groups of clubs. The idea of a Super League which would be a league competition amongst Europe's super clubs has been met much criticism, but when we look at the facts, we are not too far away as it is. Premier League fans will quickly point of the competitiveness of their league and boast that it is the exception. So let's have a look at just that claim.
Premier League
In figure 6 below, I look at the Premier League in five-year intervals 2002/2003, 2007/2008, 2012/2013, and then every season from 2015/2016 to 2018/2019 to see specific changes over time. I compared how many points the champions got in each year and how far they finished ahead of 2nd, 4th, 10th and 20th place. I also checked if the number of points the top four and bottom four sides got, to see if they have diverged or converged. A divergence would suggest the league is becoming more unequal and therefore less exciting and competitive.
Leicester's Miracle Season
The 2015/2016 season will be remembered as the season in which Leicester became the biggest outsiders to win the Premier League with some bookies giving odds as high as 5000-1. But it was one of the most competitive years in Premier League history. During the season the top four only got 288 points between them. The next two seasons, they got 333 points. A 45 collective points jump. But in the 2015/2016 season, the bottom four clubs got 127 points. Just one less than the season before. But it is 15 points more than last season where the bottom four clubs only achieved 112 points, which is the lowest of this study. One statistic that may explain why the top four got so few points was the rise of the midtable clubs. In that season there was only a 31 point gap between champions Leicester and Chelsea in 10th. This is the lowest amount in the studied years. For context, the difference between first and 10th during the 2018/2019 season was 46, and the year before that it was 56 points.
Premier League Trends
In general, the Premier League is becoming less competitive with each given year. The number of points achieved by the champions is on the rise. We see a growing disparity between Manchester City and Liverpool with the other top 6 clubs and the rest of the league. Last season saw a gap of 27 points between 1st and 4th. The biggest total in the studied period. Except for last year, the bottom of the table is getting stronger, but the middle of the league grows weaker. The difference last year is due to the dismal form of Huddersfield Town with 16 points and Fulham with 26. The season before, 20th place West Brom got 31. This also meant there was an 82 point gap between Manchester City and Huddersfield Town. In other words, 27 wins and a draw.
Conclusions:
- There is an unfair disparity between the top clubs and the clubs they compete against.
- Players have little chance of winning the Champions League or a domestic title in Europe's top 5 leagues unless they are at a very select group of clubs.
-Smaller clubs are unlikely to play expansive football against big sides and be successful even 50% of the time. This will result in the continuation of "anti-football" tactics.
- There seems to be a strong correlation between Champions League participation and domestic domination.
- Leagues without deep-seated Champions League participation like Russia, Portugal and the Netherlands tend to be more competitive than the top five leagues.
-Europe already has a super league filled with dominant super clubs.
-The MLS has a much more extensive range of winners and shows no signs of changing.
- It is likely that the same 8-10 clubs will continue to be in the Champions League quarter-finals for years to come.
- The Premier League is following the pattern of other European leagues, with the top of the division being dominated by 1-2 clubs.
-The bottom of the Premier League is getting stronger which suggest there is a growing strength amongst championship clubs and a weakening of mid-table sides.
What's Next
In the next piece, I will look the MLS in detail and compare it with the European game.
Graphs:
Fig1
Fig 2
Fig 3
Fig 4
Fig 5
Fig 6
References:
1. Transfermarkt https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/primera-division/startseite/wettbewerb/ES1
Bibliography:
1. DW Kick-Off: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2cAN2guPTE&t=668s
2. CIES Football Observatory https://football-observatory.com/IMG/sites/mr/mr42/en/
check out my book on Amazon called... "The Politics of Americanizing Soccer"
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